I interviewed Dr. Jared Rubin this week to explore the historical drivers of economic growth and we discussed the apparent disparity between the current global prosperity and the widespread pessimism in the United States, as evidenced by surveys. As an expert in economic history, Rubin provided valuable perspectives on these complex issues. Rubin, a professor and co-director of the Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics and Society at Chapman University, co-authored the book "How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth" with Mark Koyama which delved deeply into the theories of other economic historians to uncover the crucial elements that have propelled global economic advancement throughout history. Conclusion from the interview: “Best time to be born is now, but…” The interview reveals Rubin's perspective that the drivers of economic growth over the last few centuries have developed institutional and cultural inertia, causing prosperity to be resilient and highly likely to continue. However, his work showed that there are 3 key threats to be aware of from history: i) Erosion of constraints on executive power; Today’s political polarization is a concern/ ii) Major environmental change; Climate change can lead to accelerated changes and reactions/ and iii) Extreme warfare; Growing geopolitical instability draws nuclear powers closer to war which raises risks of nuclear war. These risks to sustained economic growth can carry a heavier emotional response than their likelihood of occurring and could explain the disconnect.
Chapter Guide to the Interview:
00:00 - Introduction
02:12 - The Drivers of Global Economic Growth The main factors that have contributed to economic growth historically, including geography, demography, colonialism, institutions, and culture.
10:56 - England's Economic Rise (1000-1750) This section discusses the unique combination of factors that led to England becoming the birthplace of the modern economy.
17:19 - The Impact of the Printing Press This chapter explores how the adoption of the printing press differed between Western Europe and the Islamic world, and its consequences for economic development.
36:13 - Modern Challenges: War, China, and Global Prosperity This section covers contemporary issues, including the threat of nuclear war, China's economic rise, and the overall improvement in global living standards.
53:10 - Future Prospects and the Importance of Poverty Eradication The final chapter discusses the main threats to continued economic growth, the potential for further poverty reduction, and the importance of human ingenuity in solving global problems.
The Wealth Paradox: Understanding Global Prosperity Amidst American Discontent